The Yeti Under the bed
I am going to outline in this article the problems that I have with conspiracy theories. Here is why is think that most of them are based around stupid reasoning processes.
I) Most conspiracy theories are unfalsifiable. By this I mean that a conspiracy has no mechanism by which it can be proved wrong. At first glance this may seem like a positive thing. What could be stronger than a theory that cannot be proved wrong? However, is it not the case that every theory should have a mechanism by which we can decide if a theory is incorrect? Conspiracy theories do not conform to this way of reasoning. This is because it doesn’t matter what evidence you place before the conspiracy theory; it can be dismissed. It is dismissed not because the evidence is weak, but because the conspiracy relies on hidden groups or evidence. Consequently, whatever evidence produced against it will not be seen as sufficient. This means whatever evidence one has against the truthfulness of a conspiracy theory is not seen as significant -- the conspiracy will continue. Thus the conspiracy theory is not open to being proved incorrect.
II) The conspiracy theorist, especially the holocaust denier, will often argue like this: Sadie and Bob embellished their testimonies.They exaggerated in all that they said. How can we now take seriously the thousands of other eye witnesses? Now, of course people often exaggerate when retelling a story. Imagine a night out you go on; it is a great evening and a lot of fun was had. Often the story becomes greater than what went on. Or when people are involved a fight it often becomes more violent that it was in reality. Now do these exaggerations mean that the fight or the night out did not take place? The conspiracy theorist is prone to dwell on those testimonies that are exaggerated rather than those that are not.
III) The conspiracy theorist argues in a way that has become known as the God of the gaps argument. Just as people seem to argue that any hole in our understanding can be filled with God, the conspiracy theorist does the same with the validity of an argument. For example, if you can’t tell us what socks Napoleon was wearing during the battle of Waterloo, then the battle cannot really have taken place. The conspiracy theorist is happy to disregard huge swathes of documented evidence because a historian does not yet know the answer to a specific often small question.
IV) The conspiracy theorist seemingly overvalues the human ability to keep a secret. Sometimes the conspiracy theory involves thousands of people involved in them. Does this really seem plausible? It is often argued that ‘the Jews’ set up the holocaust in order to receive the state of Israel. This would mean that millions of people were able to keep their mouths shut. It would also mean that a whole racial group was able to keep what must surely be huge levels of documentation secret. Try keeping a secret within a group of ten, let alone groups of up to millions of people.
V) The conspiracy theorist argues the wrong way round. They start with a conclusion, all banks are evil. They then proceed to find any evidence that supports this conclusion. We see the same line with Biblical archaeology. Their Bible is true, and therefore we will find evidence for it. The evidence should, in clear and rational thought, come prior to the conclusion. That is just the way decent thought is conducted.
This article is not intended to say we as people are never lied to. There are many cases throughout history where a conspiracy has been found. However, these did not rest upon conspiracy lines of thinking. They relied upon positive evidence being presented. Next time you come across a conspiracy theory, see how many of them tick the boxes of the five points I have outlined in this article. If they do, it is probably safe to say the Yeti is not under the bed.
This article is not intended to say we as people are never lied to. There are many cases throughout history where a conspiracy has been found. However, these did not rest upon conspiracy lines of thinking. They relied upon positive evidence being presented. Next time you come across a conspiracy theory, see how many of them tick the boxes of the five points I have outlined in this article. If they do, it is probably safe to say the Yeti is not under the bed.
Lloyd Duddridge
The Philosophy Takeaway 'Truth' Issue 42
